Can the world quit coal?

As world leaders^[1] and thousands of researchers, activists^[2] and lobbyists^[3] meet in Brazil at the 30th annual United Nations climate conference^[4], there is plenty of frustration that the world isn’t making progress on climate change fast enough.

Globally, greenhouse gas emissions and global temperatures^[5] continue to rise. In the U.S., the Trump administration, which didn’t send an official delegation to the climate talks, is rolling back environmental and energy regulations^[6] and pressuring other countries^[7] to boost their use of fossil fuels – the leading driver of climate change.

Coal use is also rising, particularly in India and China^[8]. And debates rage about justice and the future for coal-dependent communities^[9] as coal burning and coal mining end.

But underneath the bad news is a set of complex, contradictory and sometimes hopeful developments.

The problem with coal

Coal is the dirtiest source of fossil fuel energy^[10] and a major contributor of greenhouse gas emissions, making it bad not just for the climate but also for human health^[11]. That makes it a good target for cutting global emissions.

A swift drop in coal use is the main reason U.S. greenhouse gas emissions fell^[12] in recent years as natural gas and renewable energy became cheaper.

Today, nearly a third of all countries worldwide have pledged to phase out^[13] their unabated coal-burning power plants in the coming years, including several countries you might not expect. Germany, Spain, Malaysia, the Czech Republic – all have substantial coal reserves and coal use today, yet they are among the more than 60 countries^[14] that have joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance and set phase-out deadlines between 2025 and 2040.

Several governments in the European Union^[15] and Latin America^[16] are now coal phase-out leaders, and EU greenhouse gas emissions continue to fall^[17].

Progress, and challenges ahead

So, where do things stand for phasing out coal burning globally? The picture is mixed. For example:

• The accelerating deployment of renewable energy, energy storage, electric vehicles and energy efficiency globally offer hope that global emissions are on their way to peaking^[18]. More than 90% of the new electricity capacity installed worldwide in 2024 came from clean energy sources^[19]. However, energy demand is also growing quickly^[20], so new renewable power does not always replace older fossil fuel plants or prevent new ones, including coal.

• China now burns more coal than the rest of the world combined, and it continues to build new coal plants^[21]. But China is also a driving force^[22] in the dramatic growth in solar and wind energy investments and electricity generation inside China and around the world. As the industry leader in renewable energy technology, it has a strong economic interest in solar and wind power’s success around the world.

• While climate policies that can reduce coal use are being subject to backlash politics and policy rollbacks^[23] in the U.S. and several European democracies, many other governments around the world continue to enact and implement cleaner energy and emissions reduction policies^[24].

Phasing out coal isn’t easy, or happening as quickly as studies show is needed^[25] to slow climate change.

To meet the 2015 Paris Agreement’s goals of limiting global warming to well under 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times, research shows that the world will need to rapidly reduce nearly all^[26] fossil fuel burning and associated emissions – and it is not close to being on track^[27].

Ensuring a just transition for coal communities

Many countries with coal mining operations worry about the transition for coal-dependent communities as mines shut down and jobs disappear.

No one wants a repeat of then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s destruction of British coal communities^[28] in the 1980s in her effort to break the mineworkers union. Mines rapidly closed, and many coal communities and regions were left languishing in economic and social decline for decades.