Perth's Southern Suburbs Are Running Their Own Race

New data shows Cockburn up 18.7%, Melville through $1.47 million, and Perth listings still near historic lows. This is not the national story.

The national conversation about property right now is dominated by rate hikes, falling borrowing capacity, and a cooling market. It is a reasonable story for most of Australia. It just is not the Perth story.

REIWA data for the week ending 5 April shows total Perth listings fell again, sitting at 3,279 properties. For context, a balanced Perth market typically carries 12,000 to 13,000. The city is running at roughly a quarter of normal supply, and that shortfall is concentrated hardest in the suburbs south of the river.

The suburb-level numbers are striking. Cockburn is up 18.7% year on year. Melville has crossed $1.47 million, a $160,000 increase in only 12 months. Fremantle is up 12.3%. Across the southern corridor, sellers who tested the market last week discounted less than at any point in recent memory, according to REIWA's data.

The narrative you are hearing nationally just does not apply the same way here. In Perth's south, we are still seeing genuine competition among buyers for quality homes. Cockburn is up nearly 19% in a year. Melville is through $1.47 million. And the sellers discounting? REIWA says it is the lowest in decades. That tells you everything about where the power sits. Tom Carlin, Principal, Carlin Team

Perth's broader figures support the same picture. Dwelling values rose 2.0% last month and 7.0% over the quarter, reaching a record median of $961,898, up 18.5% for the year. 

KPMG has Perth as the top-performing capital for price growth in 2026 at 12.8%. The contrast with the east coast is significant: SQM Research has downgraded its Sydney forecast to potential outright declines and Melbourne is facing similar headwinds.

Part of what is driving the southern suburbs specifically is structural, not just cyclical. The Thornlie-Cockburn Link, the long-anticipated METRONET rail extension completed in late 2025, permanently changed the connectivity of the southern corridor. Suburbs that felt peripheral are now 20 minutes from the CBD. That shift does not reverse when rates move.

If you are a homeowner in the southern suburbs sitting on the fence, the window where listings are this low and buyer demand is this strong will not stay open indefinitely. The RBA has already moved. Affordability will eventually put a ceiling on things. But right now, supply is still extremely tight, and serious buyers are still very active. Tom Carlin, Principal, Carlin Team

For buyers, the picture is more layered. The RBA's March rate hike to 4.10% cut average household borrowing capacity by up to $36,000 since January. A potential May move remains on the table. The WA Government's recently announced stamp duty changes, lifting the full exemption threshold to $500,000, offer some relief for first-home buyers, but the underlying cost of entry continues to rise as values climb.

What the data does not show, but Carlin's team observes weekly at opens across Cockburn, Canning Vale, Fremantle and surrounds, is the quality of buyer intent. These are not speculators. They are people who have been watching the market for months, are pre-approved, and are ready to move when the right property comes up.

Perth is not Sydney. Perth is not Melbourne. We have got our own fundamentals, our own supply story, and right now, our own window of opportunity. The southern suburbs are still one of the best-performing property markets in Australia. The data backs it up, and so does every open home we run. Tom Carlin, Principal, Carlin Team

About Carlin Team

Carlin Team is a Perth-based real estate agency specialising in the city's southern suburbs. Principal Tom Carlin has completed over 160 sales per year and is consistently ranked among Australia's top performing agents. The team combines deep local market knowledge with a data-driven approach to help clients achieve exceptional results. carlinteam.com.au

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