Could global tensions finally see Sweden warming towards the euro?

Sweden has been part of the European Union for 30 years, yet it is one of the few EU countries that has kept its own currency, the krona. Legally, Sweden is expected to join the euro one day but in reality, that day keeps being pushed into the future.

This makes Sweden^[1] something of an outlier in Europe. In a referendum in 2003^[2], 56% of voters said no to the euro, and no government since then has felt confident enough to revisit the question.

Now however, as Europe faces new economic and geopolitical pressures, there have been reports^[3] that the mood in Sweden is beginning to shift. The country’s central bank (Riksbank) recently acknowledged that the economic uncertainty caused by US president Donald Trump’s erratic tariff policies had “widened the range of potential outcomes”^[4]. But despite the headlines, any move would represent a major change in direction for Swedes.

Sweden’s relationship with European integration has always been pragmatic. Cooperation has been viewed primarily through an economic lens^[5] rather than as a political project.

During the cold war, the country’s policy of neutrality^[6] kept it outside the European Economic Community (the original European free trade area). When Sweden finally joined the EU in 1995, it did so largely because the creation of the single market in 1993 had reshaped trade across Europe. For a small, export-orientated economy, access to that market was essential.

Read more: How Canada and Sweden are redefining northern security and co-operation^[7]

From the beginning, Swedish debate about EU membership centred on growth, jobs and stability rather than on questions of shared political identity. That economic focus would later shape attitudes towards the euro as well.

A second formative experience came from Sweden’s own financial and currency crisis^[8] in the early 1990s. After a period of currency turmoil, the Riksbank hiked interest rates^[9] to an astonishing 500% in a bid to prevent devaluation.

When this failed, the krona was allowed to float (meaning it could be traded on currency markets, which would determine its value) after being pegged to other currencies for more than half a century. Sweden then entered a deep recession.

The crisis marked a turning point. Sweden had moved to a floating exchange rate, the Riksbank was granted independence, and strict rules to prevent unsustainable budget deficits were introduced.

Over time these reforms restored credibility and stability. They also left a lasting imprint on public opinion: monetary independence and flexible exchange rates came to be seen by citizens as beneficial.

When the euro was being designed in the 1990s, Sweden was still recovering from its economic crisis. Public finances were strained and unemployment was high. A government-appointed commission^[10] concluded in 1996 that Sweden was not yet ready to join a monetary union. As a result, the country stayed out when the euro was launched in 1999.

When the 2003 referendum was called, memories of the 1990s crisis and the risks associated with fixed exchange rates were still vivid. So voters chose to remain outside.

Since then^[11], Sweden’s economic performance has often been better than that of the euro area. Output has grown at a consistently faster pace, and the economy has weathered major shocks, including the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and the COVID pandemic, with relative resilience.

Stronger growth has bolstered the public finances, and Sweden’s public debt ratio today stands at less than half^[12] the average level in the euro area.

As Swedish public opinion tends to evaluate European cooperation in economic terms, these comparisons matter. Support for the euro^[13] fell sharply during the euro debt crisis. Although it has recovered in recent years, roughly half of Swedes say they would vote no to joining while around one third would vote yes.