Why China might need the rest of the west more as Trump arrives in the White House
- Written by Chee Meng Tan, Assistant Professor of Business Economics, University of Nottingham
Donald Trump has a knack of antagonising and confusing China. During his first presidential campaign, he accused China of “raping”[1] the US through unfair trade practices. But later in his first term as US president, Trump also called Chinese president Xi Jinping a “good friend”[2].
Throughout the 2024 presidential campaign Trump suggested he would be tough on China in a second term, and days away from becoming president nothing looks likely to change.
Trump has suggested he could raise tariffs on all Chinese goods[3] up to 60%, and is likely to appoint Marco Rubio[4] as secretary of state and Mark Waltz[5] as national security adviser. Both are “China hawks” who believe that Washington should toughen its stance against Beijing[6], and view China as a national security threat to the US.
Beijing has tried preparing[7] for a tougher US climate, which may explain why it has increased trade with south-east Asia[8], Latin America[9], and the Middle East[10] in recent years. Therefore, China may be looking to engage the west, at least the non-US part of it, for a range of economic, political and security reasons.
The Chinese government could see Ottawa as a solution to help meet China’s energy needs, as Canada is rich in oil[11], coal[12] and iron[13]. It could even warm up to Canberra, as Australia has abundant lithium[14], which is crucial for making electric vehicles.
Read more: With Trump in the White House, China and Latin America may try to forge an even deeper relationship[15]
Ultimately though, China might need to maintain ties and improve its relationship with the EU. The EU holds the distinction of being China’s second largest trading partner[16], and exports to the EU have soared[17] in the past few years. This occurred as Beijing pivoted away[18] from manufacturing the “old three” [19] exports –- household appliances, furniture and clothing – to the tech-intensive “new three”[20], in electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells.
China’s new products
Since the “new three” represent an important component in China’s economic growth, the EU, as a significant consumer[21] of such products, represents a crucial market for China. Nonetheless, the EU is not an easy win for China.
US likely to appoint a China ‘hawk’ as secretary of state.Brussels has accused Beijing[22] of unfairly subsidising Chinese electric vehicle firms and has imposed tariffs of up to 45.3%[23] on these goods since late October 2024. But China may have substantial room to smooth relations with the European bloc, and there are signs[24] that this is happening. However, the recent row over China’s potential involvement[25] with anchor dragging in the Baltic Sea to damage communication cables will not have helped matters.
Fortunately for China, the EU is not a united front. Voting patterns[26] on tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in 2024 reveal an interesting fact: ten nations supported them, five were against and 12 abstained.
Potentially, Beijing could sway detractors and fence-sitters in Brussels by lowering barriers to entry[27] for EU firms coming into the Chinese market, and reduce subsidies for Chinese firms[28] competing in Europe.
China has a partnership of “no limits”[29] with Russia, and this has proven to be a concern[30] for the west, and particularly Europe. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Nato declared[31] that: “The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and values.”
Growing concerns[32] over China’s activities in Europe and Asia may have prompted Nato to invite Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea (known as the Asia Pacific 4 or AP4), to Nato’s June 2022 summit. While European officials have dismissed[33] a formal alliance between Nato and Asian states, there are increasingly frequent discussions and meetings between both sides[34].
Beijing could help alleviate western fears that China is a security threat by resolving one of Europe’s thorniest geopolitical issues: the Ukraine-Russia war[35], although that is looking unlikely[36]. However, an attempt to help create a peace deal could lessen western perception of the “Chinese threat”.
Engaging with the US
China will continue to engage with the US. Aside from being the third largest trading partner[37] with China after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and the EU, the western superpower remains a technological, economic and military powerhouse.
Former US president John F. Kennedy once wrote[38]: “When written in Chinese, the word "crisis” is composed of two characters – one represents danger and one represents opportunity.“ If China plays its cards right, the danger that Trump appears to represent to its economy might not be as significant as first thought. Trump, after all, is not always predictable.
References
- ^ “raping” (www.bbc.com)
- ^ “good friend” (www.bbc.com)
- ^ raise tariffs on all Chinese goods (www.reuters.com)
- ^ Marco Rubio (www.afr.com)
- ^ Mark Waltz (abcnews.go.com)
- ^ its stance against Beijing (abcnews.go.com)
- ^ preparing (www.youtube.com)
- ^ south-east Asia (www.thinkchina.sg)
- ^ Latin America (theconversation.com)
- ^ Middle East (www.brookings.edu)
- ^ oil (oec.world)
- ^ coal (oec.world)
- ^ iron (www.ualberta.ca)
- ^ lithium (www.lowyinstitute.org)
- ^ With Trump in the White House, China and Latin America may try to forge an even deeper relationship (theconversation.com)
- ^ second largest trading partner (tr.boell.org)
- ^ soared (www.bloomberg.com)
- ^ pivoted away (www.citigroup.com)
- ^ “old three” (www.chinadaily.com.cn)
- ^ “new three” (www.chinadaily.com.cn)
- ^ significant consumer (www.atlanticcouncil.org)
- ^ accused Beijing (www.aljazeera.com)
- ^ 45.3% (www.dw.com)
- ^ signs (www.voanews.com)
- ^ potential involvement (www.wsj.com)
- ^ Voting patterns (www.euronews.com)
- ^ lowering barriers to entry (www.hawksford.com)
- ^ subsidies for Chinese firms (www.intereconomics.eu)
- ^ partnership of “no limits” (www.channelnewsasia.com)
- ^ concern (foreignpolicy.com)
- ^ declared (www.nato.int)
- ^ Growing concerns (www.politico.eu)
- ^ dismissed (www.politico.eu)
- ^ both sides (www.politico.eu)
- ^ Ukraine-Russia war (www.usnews.com)
- ^ looking unlikely (theconversation.com)
- ^ third largest trading partner (www.china-briefing.com)
- ^ wrote (www.jfklibrary.org)
