It says economic activity probably contracted 2.5% in the three months to September, but the December quarter (the one we are in now) will regain most of what was lost, leaving the economy recovering much as it would have were it not for the mid-year lockdowns.
Taken together with last year’s descent into recession and quick bounce back it paints a picture of a W-shaped recovery, even on what the Bank has graphed as its “downside” scenario.
Reserve Bank GDP forecasts
As a sign of emerging confidence it points to an increase in the number of people prepared to change jobs because they are looking for something better or different.
It says this is partly a bounce back from the start of the COVID recession when workers appeared to put plans they might have had to change jobs on hold.