Business Daily Media

Men's Weekly

.

These jobs will thrive – but others may vanish – as AI transforms Australia’s workforce

  • Written by Janine Dixon, Director, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia made headlines[1] when it announced last week it would cut 45 call centre jobs, thanks to the introduction of an AI chatbot.

This only added fuel to ongoing speculation[2] – and some alarmism – about how artificial intelligence (AI) is going to transform the world of work in Australia.

But this revolution isn’t a simple story of “robots” coming and taking everyone’s jobs. In some industries, they’re already helping people do parts of their jobs better and faster.

Junior lawyers are using AI tools[3] to help with some of the more mundane tasks they are often assigned. Recruiters are already widely using AI tools to screen CVs and help with hiring decisions – despite concerns[4] about possible inadvertent bias.

So where is this all going?

We used a model of the Australian economy and built on existing research[5] by the International Labour Organization. We simulated two future versions of Australia through to 2050: one in which businesses and government adopt AI extensively, and one in which there is no AI – that is, a future that looks rather like today.

Comparing these two futures helps us understand what we might gain and lose from this new technology.

A very different future

AI is a very disruptive technology, meaning a future with it looks pretty different to a future without it.

To help forecast where we might be headed, the International Labour Organization has produced a detailed set of “exposure indices[6]” for more than 400 different occupations. These indicate the extent to which human input to each occupation will be displaced or augmented by AI.

The most exposed occupation is data entry clerk, for which the International Labour Organization estimates 70% of the tasks currently done by humans could be done or improved by AI. Bricklayers and dental assistants, at the other end of the scale, are among jobs classified as “not exposed”.

What this means for Australia

To perform our simulation, we mapped these occupation categories onto the Australian context. The International Labour Organization indices indicate 32% of jobs in Australia could be done by AI. But this doesn’t mean that 32% of people will lose their jobs overnight.

It will take time for AI capabilities to be installed, giving people time to train for alternative careers. Much of the impact is likely to be years away, meaning that school-leavers can make different choices and prepare for an AI world.

Many studies, including the Productivity Commission’s interim report on AI[7], find AI will drive faster economic growth. In a faster-growing economy, more people will work as teachers, hairdressers, and carers, because AI isn’t expected to be as useful in those roles.

This faster-growing economy will also require more school buildings, hair salons and care homes.

As a result, some of the occupations with the largest expansions will be in the construction and building services sectors. Cleaners, construction labourers, carpenters and bricklayers will all have big roles to play in an AI future.

Managing the transition

Our simulation shows that during the transition period where employers gradually adopt AI, the unemployment rate will be higher than normal, as workers and investors will be seeking new jobs or opportunities. But there is scope for governments to act to minimise the disruption.

First, they can prepare people for careers in occupations that will grow strongly, such as those at the top of our chart.

Second, government can facilitate early, jobs-focused investment in industries less exposed to AI, particularly those that require lots of interpersonal input.

For example, investment in a world with fewer business analysts and more hospitality workers should be targeted at hotels and hospitality venues, rather than office space.

And third, AI will drive economic growth and tax revenues. This creates an opportunity for the government – a major employer – to create and fill more jobs in support of a safe and healthy society, such as drug and alcohol services, child protection case workers, and teachers’ aides.

Construction workers in the central business district in Melbourne
Many jobs in Australia’s construction industry aren’t likely to be automated soon. Joel Carrett/AAP[8]

Bringing everyone along

Although we find that the economy will grow faster in an AI world, there’s no guarantee this growth will include everyone.

Overall, our simulation paints a picture of a larger and better resourced economy, showing us that total employment won’t change a lot, but employment in some occupations will be much larger or smaller than it would be in a non-AI future.

But our simulation also suggests growth in profits will be stronger than growth in wages. Governments will need to keep a close eye on wage growth and equality, and may need to address emerging issues through tax policy, competition policy and industrial relations.

References

  1. ^ made headlines (www.abc.net.au)
  2. ^ ongoing speculation (www.afr.com)
  3. ^ AI tools (www.abc.net.au)
  4. ^ concerns (theconversation.com)
  5. ^ existing research (www.ilo.org)
  6. ^ exposure indices (www.ilo.org)
  7. ^ interim report on AI (www.pc.gov.au)
  8. ^ Joel Carrett/AAP (photos.aap.com.au)

Authors: Janine Dixon, Director, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University

Read more https://theconversation.com/these-jobs-will-thrive-but-others-may-vanish-as-ai-transforms-australias-workforce-262444

Digital Upgrade to Boost Efficiency Across Tasmanian Ports

TasPorts is undertaking a multimillion-dollar digital transformation that will improve efficiency, and enable smarter, more sustainable operations a...

Simplifying ecommerce integrations: How to streamline your setup without the stress

In today’s fast-moving retail world, having an ecommerce presence isn’t optional. Platforms like Shopify, WooCommerce, and Squarespace have lowered...

Shop Small Returns to Back the Small Businesses Supporting Local Communities

The annual Shop Small movement by American Express is returning for its 13th year in Australia to galvanise support for the country’s vibrant smal...

Introducing Commerce, the New Parent Brand of BigCommerce, Feedonomics and Makeswift, Powering an AI-Driven Future

Commerce’s open, intelligent ecosystem connects the tools and systems that drive growth and empower businesses to unlock data potential and deliver ...

How better billing can boost performance and profits in uncertain times

Optimising your revenue management function will help you put your business on stronger footing. The fact that economic conditions are tricky i...

Small-Business Cash-Flow Playbook 2025

An educational guide to managing ATO debt, real-time super and growth finance in Australia’s new landscape Why ATO debt just became the most expe...

Sell by LayBy