Meanwhile, annual inflation in Germany and the U.K. – countries with comparable economies – ran nearly as high: 7.5% and 8.2%, respectively, for the 12 months ending in June 2022. In Spain, inflation has hit 10%.
It might seem like U.S. policies brought on this predicament, but economists like me doubt it because inflation is spiking everywhere, with few exceptions. Rates averaged 9.65% in the 38 largely wealthy countries that belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development through May 2022.
Scarcity put pressure on prices everywhere
Computer chip manufacturers struggled to keep up, leading to chip shortages and higher prices for a dizzying array of devices and machines requiring them, including refrigerators, cars and smartphones.
Supply chain strains
By keeping as little of the materials needed to make their products on hand, companies become more vulnerable to shortages and transportation snafus. And when manufacturers are unable to make their products quickly, shortages occur and prices surge.
This approach, especially when it involves the reliance on far-flung suppliers, has left businesses much more susceptible to market shocks.
Many businesses either fired or furloughed large numbers of workers in 2020. When governments began to relax restrictions related to the pandemic, many employers found that significant numbers of their former workers were unwilling to return to work.
Whether those workers had chosen to retire early, seek new jobs offering a better work-life balance or become disabled, the results were the same: labor shortages that required higher wages to recruit replacements and retain other employees.
War in Ukraine compounded these woes
Russia is the world’s second-largest exporter of crude oil. Sanctions against Russian imports, combined with Russia halting oil shipments to European countries in retaliation, has led to disruptions in the global oil market.
As Europe buys more oil from the Middle East, demand for oil from that region increases, prompting price increases. Crude prices jumped from $101 per barrel in late February 2022, to $123 a month later. Prices stayed high for several months but by late July were around $100 a barrel again.
Food prices have increased substantially in the U.S. and elsewhere, partly due to this conflict. Ukraine possesses some of the most fertile soil in the world and is the third-largest exporter of corn.
How will the world respond?
Support for globalization and international trade has waned in recent years. Given supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine fueling inflation, this trend will likely continue.
However, as an economist, I believe the benefits of free and open trade still outweigh current challenges.
- ^ 9.1% increase in U.S. consumer prices (www.bls.gov)
- ^ many (www.axios.com)
- ^ sobering (www.yahoo.com)
- ^ headlines (www.cnbc.com)
- ^ inflation has hit 10% (data.imf.org)
- ^ economists like me (scholar.google.com)
- ^ inflation (www.reuters.com)
- ^ spiking everywhere (www.pewresearch.org)
- ^ Rates averaged 9.65% (data.oecd.org)
- ^ price increases starting in early 2021 (www.stlouisfed.org)
- ^ working in offices to clocking in at home (www.cnn.com)
- ^ higher prices for a dizzying array of devices (www.bloomberg.com)
- ^ imported from all corners of the world (www.census.gov)
- ^ supply chain (theconversation.com)
- ^ cost of shipping goods to rise sharply (www.investing.com)
- ^ just-in-time (www.constructiondive.com)
- ^ shock waves through labor markets (theconversation.com)
- ^ lasting effects (www.pewresearch.org)
- ^ former workers were unwilling to return to work (www.brookings.edu)
- ^ chosen to retire early (www.investmentnews.com)
- ^ jobs offering a better work-life balance (www.investmentnews.com)
- ^ become disabled (www.washingtonpost.com)
- ^ recruit replacements and retain other employees (www.washingtonpost.com)
- ^ occurring globally (data.oecd.org)
- ^ not just in the U.S. (data.worldbank.org)
- ^ Feb. 24, 2022 (www.pbs.org)
- ^ global supply of fuels (www.brookings.edu)
- ^ grains (www.brookings.edu)
- ^ fueling inflation (www.federalreserve.gov)
- ^ second-largest exporter of crude oil (www.investopedia.com)
- ^ Russia halting oil shipments to European countries (www.reuters.com)
- ^ Crude prices jumped (oilprice.com)
- ^ Food prices have increased substantially (www.weforum.org)
- ^ third-largest exporter of corn (www.worldstopexports.com)
- ^ blockade of Ukrainian exports (www.nytimes.com)
- ^ significant price increases worldwide (theconversation.com)
- ^ agricultural commodities (abcnews.go.com)
- ^ Support for globalization and international trade has waned (www.weforum.org)
- ^ cannot be fixed (www.newsweek.com)