Turkey is an incredibly powerful broker in the current world crisis, and a masterful negotiator

While Turkey’s government is struggling to deal with mass protests at home (after Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem Imamoglu^[1] was imprisoned), in foreign affairs it is in an increasingly strong position as a key power broker in deals with Europe, the US and Russia. At the crossroads between Asia and Europe, Turkey is strategically important to just about everyone, and is emerging as a clever negotiator.

Since the early 2000s, Turkey has relied on a foreign policy^[2] approach that emphasised cooperation instead of competition. Economic ties were a priority, which helped Turkey steadily improve its relationships with Russia, Iran and Syria.

While remaining a part of Nato and a major trading partner with the European Union^[3], Turkey views its ties with Russia, Ukraine, China and countries in the Middle East as equally important. Turkey has shown that it will work with whatever government benefits its interests, and has taken advantage of regional conflicts to be a convenient ally when needed.

At the same time, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has no qualms about confronting both friends and rivals equally, giving it strategic flexibility.

Rocky relationship with Russia

Turkey is Russia’s second biggest trading partner. Ankara continues to rely on Russian gas and banking networks, doing over US$60 billion^[4] (£46.3 billion) in trade annually with Moscow. The Turkish relationship with Russia improved dramatically in 1995^[5] when Russia stopped supporting the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) and Turkey stopped supporting Chechen rebels.

Since then, Turkey has maintained a functional relationship with Russia, while never being pliant to Moscow.

Turkey was critical of Russia setting up military bases in Syria, in Tartus and Khmeimim^[6] and as it controls the airspace in northern Syria it also has the ability to restrict Russian access. Ankara has also used its military presence in Idlib, in northern Syria, to check Russian influence^[7] in the past. Turkey’s drone offensive^[8] in Idlib in 2020 helped the Syrian opposition and pushed back Syrian government and Russian-backed activity in the north-west.

The importance of the Black Sea

The Black Sea is another area of competition where Turkey has emerged with the upper hand during the war in Ukraine. Russia aimed to exercise control over the Black Sea, even seizing several Ukrainian ports which affected global grain supply^[9] in 2022.

But Turkey negotiated the release of millions of tonnes of grain and has ensured the safety of shipping routes through the Black Sea by enforcing the Montreux Convention^[10]. This 1936 agreement granted Turkish control over the shipping route between the Black Sea (through the Bosporus Strait, the Sea of Marmara and the Dardanelles, through which hundreds of millions of tons^[11] tonnes of cargo pass each year) and the Mediterranean.

Citing the agreement, Turkey also restricted Russian reinforcements into the Black Sea, which has restricted Russian naval power^[12] considerably.