Business Daily Media

The Times Real Estate

.

Australian household wealth has taken its biggest dive since the GFC, but things are looking up

  • Written by Warren Hogan, Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney

The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirms household wealth has fallen, on the back of falling house prices, in the past year.

But it’s not all bad news. There are signs of hope in the portents for the next six months.

During the first quarter of this year, the net worth of all Australian households rose 0.2% to A$10.2 trillion. Total household net worth in March 2019 was 0.7% lower than in March 2018, largely because of steep falls over the final six months of 2018.

The per capita annual decline was larger, falling by about 2.4%, because of population growth. This means the average wealth of Australians dropped by about A$9,500, from A$414,400 to A$404,900.

image ABS This household “balance sheet event” – defined as an annual decline in household sector net wealth – is the third in the past 30 years. The other two were through the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and immediately after. Housing (land and dwellings) comprises 52% of household-sector assets. Superannuation comprises 24%. Property values fluctuate with real estate prices, while superannuation is highly exposed to volatility within the financial markets. Consumer spending The next chart highlights the relationship between changes in household net worth and spending on discretionary items and durable goods. image ABS But what is interesting is that consumer sentiment has not been significantly affected. The following chart shows household net worth vs Westpac’s consumer sentiment data. This is the first major downturn in household net wealth in 30 years that has not coincided with weaker consumer sentiment. image ABS & Westpac It’s hard to know for certain why consumer confidence has remained relatively steady, but two things stand out. First, the consumer financial adjustment has been orderly and deliberate as opposed to rapid and forced. It appears people have consciously adjusted spending and savings patterns to achieve long-term savings goals. Second, there has been ongoing strength in the labour market. Despite falling wealth, people still have jobs and this reinforces confidence. Shares and housing stocks It is safe to say consumers will start spending more once they feel their asset position has stabilised. Strong equity markets have played a big role in shoring up household wealth since the start of this year. As the next chart demonstrates, they could continue to do so over the period ahead. image ABS & Bllomberg But the big swing factor is house prices – specifically land values. The Reserve Bank’s interest rate cuts should help stabilise house prices over the second half of 2019. Our last chart suggests this appears to have started, with auction clearance rates improving in recent months. image ABS, CoreLogic & Bloomberg This all suggests household wealth could start growing again in the second half of the year. That should go a long way to stabilising the economy.

Authors: Warren Hogan, Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney

Read more http://theconversation.com/australian-household-wealth-has-taken-its-biggest-dive-since-the-gfc-but-things-are-looking-up-119001

Cutting edge AI technology designed for doctors to reduce patient wait times launched in NZ

New Zealand specialist doctors now have access to Artificial Intelligence technology to help reduce patient wait times and experts say it could be...

Launchd Takes Off: Former AFL Stars Lead Tech-Powered Platform Set to Disrupt Talent and Influencer Marketing

Backed by Institutional Capital, Launchd Combines Five Leading Agencies and Smart Technology to Deliver Measurable Results Influencer marketing i...

Meet the Australian fintech unlocking rewards for small businesses

Small businesses make up 98 per cent of all businesses in Australia, yet they continue to bear the brunt of economic uncertainty. According to Credi...

Teleperformance (TP) Business Insights Report Reveals Key Shifts in Consumer Behaviour

TP’s Business Insights report  into consumer behaviors and preferences, taking in more than 57,000 respondents across 19 sectors, is shedding new li...

HubSpot launches platform-wide AI tools to help businesses close the adoption gap

HubSpot today unveiled more than 200 updates across its customer platform to help businesses grow better. The release introduces smarter tools, new AI...

Why Every Leader Needs a Personal Branding Strategy in 2025

One of the best investments you can make in 2025? Your Personal Brand.In today’s competitive and digitally driven business world, authenticity and...

Sell by LayBy