Why Trump’s tariffs can’t solve America’s fentanyl crisis

Americans consume more illicit drugs^[1] per capita than anyone else in the world; about 6% of the U.S. population^[2] uses them regularly.

One such drug, fentanyl – a synthetic opioid that’s 50 to 100 times more potent than morphine^[3] – is the leading reason U.S. overdose deaths have surged^[4] in recent years. While the rate of fentanyl overdose deaths has dipped a bit recently^[5], it’s still vastly higher than it was just five years ago.

Ending the fentanyl crisis won’t be easy. The U.S. has an addiction problem that spans decades – long predating the rise of fentanyl – and countless attempts to regulate^[6], legislate^[7] and incarcerate^[8] have done little to reduce drug consumption. Meanwhile, the opioid crisis alone costs Americans tens of billions of dollars^[9] each year.

With past policies having failed to curb fentanyl deaths, President Donald Trump now looks set to turn to another tool to fight America’s drug problem: trade policy.

During his presidential campaign, Trump pledged to impose tariffs on Canada^[10] and Mexico^[11] if they don’t halt the flow of drugs across U.S. borders. Trump also promised to impose a new set of tariffs against China if it doesn’t do more to crack down^[12] on the production of chemicals used to make fentanyl. He reiterated his plan on his first day back in office^[13], saying to reporters, “We’re thinking in terms of 25% on Mexico and Canada because they’re allowing … fentanyl to come in.”

Speaking as a professor who studies social policy^[14], I think both fentanyl and the proposed import taxes represent significant threats to the U.S. While the human toll of fentanyl is undeniable, the real question is whether tariffs will work – or worsen what’s already a crisis.

Fentanyl: The ‘single greatest challenge’

In 2021, more than 107,000 Americans^[15] died from overdoses – the most ever recorded – and nearly seven out of 10 deaths involved fentanyl or similar synthetic opioids. In 2022, fentanyl was killing an average of 200 people each day. And while fentanyl deaths declined slightly^[16] in 2023, nearly 75,000 Americans still died from synthetic opioids that year. In March of that year – the most recent for which full-year data on overdose deaths is available – the then-secretary of homeland security declared fentanyl to be “the single greatest challenge we face as a country^[17].”

But history shows that government efforts to curb drug use often have little success.

The first real attempt to regulate drugs in the U.S. occurred in 1890^[18], when, amid rampant drug abuse^[19], Congress enacted a law taxing morphine and opium. In the years that followed, cocaine use skyrocketed, rising 700% between 1890 and 1902^[20]. Cocaine was so popular, it was even found in drinks such as Coca-Cola^[21], from which it got its name.

This was followed by a 1909 act banning the smoking of opium, and, in 1937, the “Marihuana Tax Act^[22].” The most comprehensive package of laws was instituted with the Controlled Substances Act of 1970^[23], which classified drugs into five categories based on their medical uses and potential for abuse or dependence. A year later, then-President Richard Nixon launched the “War on Drugs”^[24] and declared drug abuse as “public enemy No. 1.” And in 1986, Congress passed the Anti-Drug Abuse Act^[25], directing US$1.7 billion^[26] for drug enforcement and control.

These policies have generally failed^[27] to curb drug supply and use^[28], while also causing significant harm to people and communities of color^[29]. For example, between 1980 and 1997^[30], the number of incarcerations for nonviolent drug offenses went from 50,000 to 400,000. But these policies hardly put a dent in consumption. The share of high school seniors using drugs dipped only slightly over the same period, from 65% in 1980^[31] to 58% in 1997^[32].

In short, past U.S. efforts to reduce illegal drug use haven’t been especially effective. Now, it looks like the U.S. is shifting toward using tariffs – but research suggests that those will not lead to better outcomes either, and could actually cause considerable harm.

Why tariffs won’t work

America’s experiments with tariffs can be traced back to the founding era^[33] with the passage of the Tariff Act of 1789^[34]. This long history has shown that tariffs^[35], industrial subsidies^[36] and protectionist policies don’t do much to stimulate broad economic growth at home^[37] – but they raise prices for consumers and can even lead to global economic instability^[38]. History also shows that tariffs don’t work especially well as negotiating tools, failing to effect significant policy changes in target countries^[39]. Economists generally agree^[40] that the costs of tariffs outweigh the benefits.

Over the course of Trump’s first term, the average effective tariff rate on Chinese imports went from 3% to 11%^[41]. But while imports from China fell slightly, the overall trade relationship didn’t change much: China remains the second-largest supplier^[42] of goods to the U.S.

The tariffs did have some benefit – for Vietnam^[43] and other nearby countries with relatively low labor costs. Essentially, the tariffs on China caused production to shift, with global companies investing billions of dollars in competitor nations.

This isn’t the first time Trump has used trade policy to pressure China on fentanyl^[44] – he did so in his first term. But while China made some policy changes^[45] in response, such as adding fentanyl to its controlled substances list in 2019, fentanyl deaths in the U.S.^[46] continued to rise. Currently, China^[47] still ranks as the No. 1 producer of fentanyl precursors, or chemicals used to produce illicit fentanyl. And there are others in the business: India^[48], over that same period, has become a major producer of fentanyl.

A question of supply and demand

Drugs have been pervasive throughout U.S. history. And when you investigate this history and look at how other nations are dealing with this problem rather than criminalization, the Swiss and French^[49] have approached it as an addiction problem that could be treated. They realized that demand is what fuels the illicit market. And as any economist will tell you, supply will find a way if you don’t limit the demand. That’s why treatment works and bans don’t^[50].

The U.S. government’s ability to control the production of these drugs is limited at best. The problem is that new chemical products will continually be produced. Essentially, failure to restrict demand only places bandages on hemorrhaging wounds. What the U.S. needs is a more systematic approach to deal with the demand that’s fueling the drug crisis.

References

1. ^{^} illicit drugs (www.samhsa.gov)
2. ^{^} about 6% of the U.S. population (worldpopulationreview.com)
3. ^{^} 50 to 100 times more potent than morphine (nida.nih.gov)
4. ^{^} U.S. overdose deaths have surged (www.cdc.gov)
5. ^{^} has dipped a bit recently (www.cdc.gov)
6. ^{^} regulate (doi.org)
7. ^{^} legislate (doi.org)
8. ^{^} incarcerate (heinonline.org)
9. ^{^} tens of billions of dollars (www.pewtrusts.org)
10. ^{^} Canada (www.bbc.com)
11. ^{^} Mexico (www.latimes.com)
12. ^{^} do more to crack down (www.msn.com)
13. ^{^} his first day back in office (www.businessinsider.com)
14. ^{^} a professor who studies social policy (miamioh.edu)
15. ^{^} more than 107,000 Americans (nida.nih.gov)
16. ^{^} fentanyl deaths declined slightly (www.cdc.gov)
17. ^{^} the single greatest challenge we face as a country (www.washingtonpost.com)
18. ^{^} occurred in 1890 (doi.org)
19. ^{^} amid rampant drug abuse (www.smithsonianmag.com)
20. ^{^} 700% between 1890 and 1902 (museum.dea.gov)
21. ^{^} such as Coca-Cola (www.usatoday.com)
22. ^{^} Marihuana Tax Act (maint.loc.gov)
23. ^{^} Controlled Substances Act of 1970 (www.dea.gov)
24. ^{^} “War on Drugs” (www.jstor.org)
25. ^{^} Anti-Drug Abuse Act (www.congress.gov)
26. ^{^} US$1.7 billion (www.washingtonpost.com)
27. ^{^} generally failed (doi.org)
28. ^{^} curb drug supply and use (heinonline.org)
29. ^{^} communities of color (www.brennancenter.org)
30. ^{^} between 1980 and 1997 (www.britannica.com)
31. ^{^} 65% in 1980 (monitoringthefuture.org)
32. ^{^} 58% in 1997 (monitoringthefuture.org)
33. ^{^} traced back to the founding era (theconversation.com)
34. ^{^} Tariff Act of 1789 (fraser.stlouisfed.org)
35. ^{^} tariffs (files.taxfoundation.org)
36. ^{^} industrial subsidies (scholar.harvard.edu)
37. ^{^} do much to stimulate broad economic growth at home (www.bls.gov)
38. ^{^} global economic instability (news.law.fordham.edu)
39. ^{^} effect significant policy changes in target countries (asiatimes.com)
40. ^{^} Economists generally agree (www.economist.com)
41. ^{^} from 3% to 11% (www.wsj.com)
42. ^{^} second-largest supplier (www.wsj.com)
43. ^{^} for Vietnam (www.nytimes.com)
44. ^{^} pressure China on fentanyl (www.bbc.com)
45. ^{^} some policy changes (www.cnn.com)
46. ^{^} fentanyl deaths in the U.S. (www.cnn.com)
47. ^{^} China (www.dea.gov)
48. ^{^} India (www.dea.gov)
49. ^{^} Swiss and French (www.northcarolinahealthnews.org)
50. ^{^} treatment works and bans don’t (www.wola.org)