Greater Bay Area Residential Market Largely Stabilized, Although Sentiment in Q2 2025 Marred by Geopolitical Risks
Logistics Portfolio Investment Transactions Gain Attention, Neighborhood Retail Assets Becoming Sought After
- Greater Bay Area (GBA) cities continued to extend property-related easing policies from last year through the 1H 2025 period, with a focus on alleviating financial pressure on the supply side and supporting overall residential market sentiment
- However, transaction activity slowed from April 2025, impacted by uncertainties from the trade tariff war, with 1H 2025 GBA primary residential sales numbers growing slightly at 3% y-o-y
- Total investment volume in the GBA commercial real estate (CRE) market reached RMB24.7 billion in 1H 2025, accounting for more than 31% of the overall Chinese mainland investment market
- The industrial/logistics sector's share of total GBA CRE investment expanded notably with several large-sized logistics portfolio deals recorded, while neighbourhood retail malls also captured interest
GBA Residential Market
Following the Central Government's reiteration of the need to halt the real estate market decline and spur a stable recovery in its 2025 work report, both the Central Government and GBA local governments continued to extend market-easing real estate policies from last year through the 1H 2025 period. Measures on the demand side, such as "four cancellations" and "four reductions" were extended. Authorities also focused on alleviating financial pressures on the supply side, aiming to strengthen overall market sentiment and boost buyer confidence. Key initiatives included promoting the launch of special-purpose bonds to reclaim and acquire idle land and unsold residential units. Notably, Guangzhou became the first Tier-1 city in the country to fully abolish the "three restrictions" in housing policy.
The GBA primary residential market showed resilience in the Q1 period despite being the traditional off-season. Monthly transaction numbers from January to March expanded on the same period last year. However, starting from April, greater uncertainties surrounding the trade tariff war weighed on overall economic performance and dampened residential market sentiment. In turn, more potential home buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach. New home sales in April fell by 16% from March, while May and June remained largely stable. The GBA primary residential market recorded approximately 137,000 transactions in the 1H 2025 period, up slightly at 3% y-o-y, with Tier-1 cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen showing significant growth. However, comparing with the significant recovery following last year's introduction of aggressive easing policies, the 1H 2025 total transaction number was down 26% from the 2H 2024 level (Chart 1).
Chart 1: GBA First-Hand Residential Sales
Source: CREIS, Cushman & Wakefield
In terms of home prices, primary market prices are more swayed by the quality level of newly launched projects. First-hand residential prices in the nine GBA mainland cities showed mixed performances in 1H 2025. Developers generally adopted more realistic pricing strategies to attract buyers, actively offloading inventory to improve cash flow. For secondary home prices, which better reflect current underlying trends, and using Shenzhen as an example, the Cushman & Wakefield Shenzhen mid-to-high-end secondary home price index strengthened by 4.0% from the Q4 2024 level. However, as market sentiment turned more cautious from April, overall prices experienced downward pressure and recorded a q-o-q decline of 4.4% in Q2, bringing the year-to-date adjustment to a modest -0.5% (Chart 2).
Chart 2: Shenzhen Mid-to-High-End Secondary Home Price Index
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Alva To, Cushman & Wakefield's Vice President, Greater China & Head of Consulting, Greater China said, "With central and local governments continuing to relax demand-side policies, and with the central government actively promoting the development of "Good Housing," we expect pent-up demand from both first-home buyers and upgraders to be further released. Through the past six months, local governments have accelerated the implementation of special-purpose bonds to reclaim and acquire idle land and unsold units, helping to alleviate developers' financial pressures and promote supply-demand balance in the housing market. These efforts should also support potential homebuyers' confidence and, in turn, a stable recovery in the GBA residential market. In the 1H 2025 period, new home sales numbers stood out in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, indicating that high-quality residential units, in prime locations in first-tier cities, at reasonable prices continue to be sought after despite market volatility.
"However, uncertainties surrounding trade tariff policies contributed to weaker sentiment in the GBA residential market in Q2, and the restoration of market confidence is expected to take time. We believe that, even if China-U.S. trade tensions show sign of easing in 2H 2025, lingering uncertainty may keep buyers cautious through the Q3 period, and residential transaction numbers are not likely to strengthen significantly. Nonetheless, fundamental housing demand from first-time homebuyers and upgraders is likely to provide continuous support to the GBA residential market. We forecast average monthly new home sales to record around 27,000 to 28,000 units in 2H 2025, bringing the full-year 2025 transaction number to approximately 300,000 units. Meanwhile, home prices are still facing downwards pressure, with a full-year price correction estimated in the range of a 0%–5% decline."
GBA CRE Investment Market
The GBA CRE property investment market remained resilient in the 1H 2025 period, with total investment volume reaching RMB24.7 billion, marking a 108% increase compared to the same period last year, and accounting for around 31% of total investment volume in the Chinese mainland (see Chart 3). Among the 35 transactions, 31 were at less than RMB1 billion, reflecting that investors remain cautious on big-ticket transactions.
Chart 3: CRE Investment Transactions in the GBA (2020 - 1H 2025)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
By property type, industrial and logistics assets accounted for the largest share of total CRE property investment in the GBA by transaction value in 1H 2025, with 14 related deals making up more than half of the total investment volume (see Chart 4). Within the industrial and logistics transactions, Tier-2 cities including Zhuhai, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, Zhaoqing, and Huizhou, recorded a combined transaction volume of RMB9.6 billion, comprising both logistics portfolios and individual warehouse deals. Dongguan, classified as a Tier-2 city, stands out as a top choice for logistics investment due to its strategic location, making it the most desirable logistics hub within the GBA and a key focus for investors.
Investment interest in the neighborhood retail sector also continued to heat up in the 1H period. Assets with stable rental yields and mature operations are favored by the market, attracting a diverse range of buyers. A total of nine retail sector transactions were recorded in the GBA in 1H 2025.
Chart 4: Share of Asset Type in the GBA CRE Investment Market (by Transaction Volume)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Charli Chan, Cushman & Wakefield's Deputy Managing Director, Capital Markets, China commented,
"Looking ahead to 2H 2025, among the various types of investment properties, we believe the logistics and commercial sectors will continue to outperform. With the ongoing expansion of cross-border e-commerce, demand for logistics assets has remained strong and continues to attract investor attention. However, the GBA's warehouse market is expected to see a heavy new supply pipeline over the next two to three years, which will likely lead to a rise in vacancy rates and exert downward pressure on rents. Moreover, since the onset of the China–U.S. trade tensions, market sentiment has become more volatile. Logistics asset owners have become more pragmatic, allowing for greater room in price negotiations. This has helped narrow the expectation gap between buyers and sellers, potentially facilitating more transactions in logistics and warehouse facilities. We believe institutional and long-term investors will seize this opportunity to hunt for value. On the other hand, we expect to see more transactions involving high-quality commercial assets in the 2H 2025 period. Benefiting from the spillover of Hong Kong residents' spending power and a shift toward mid- to lower-end consumption, well-performing shopping centers and community retail malls are gaining market traction and interest from potential investors. However, mall owners in Tier-1 cities tend to be more reluctant to sell, whereas owners in Tier-2 cities are more pragmatic, making retail projects in mature communities the preferred investment sectors for insurance companies and real estate funds."
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Photo 1: Alva To, Cushman & Wakefield's Vice President, Greater China & Head of Consulting, Greater China (Left), and Charli Chan, Cushman & Wakefield's Deputy Managing Director of Capital Markets, China (Right)
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About Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global commercial real estate services firm for property owners and occupiers with approximately 52,000 employees in nearly 400 offices and 60 countries. In Greater China, a network of 23 offices serves local markets across the region. In 2023, the firm reported revenue of $9.5 billion across its core services of valuation, consulting, project & development services, capital markets, project & occupier services, industrial & logistics, retail and others. It also receives numerous industry and business accolades for its award-winning culture and commitment to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI), sustainability and more. For additional information, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com.hk or follow us on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/company/cushman-&-wakefield-greater-china).
