Business Daily Media

Men's Weekly

.

Growth in Asia will lose pace in 2023, only to pick up next year

HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach - 8 March 2023 - Atradius, a global trade insurance leader, has today released its 2023 Regional Economic Outlook report, setting out growth forecasts for key economies in Asia, including the outlook for a newly reopened China, and offering a long-term view on the risks of geo-economic fragmentation resulting from ongoing supply chain reconfigurations and geopolitical tensions.



Please find below the key takeaways from Bert Burger, Principal Economist, Atradius, and the full report is available for download here.

Overall Asia macro-economic outlook:

  • Asian economies are on course for modest growth this year as they try to shake off the negative effects of tighter financial conditions, inflation, a weak global economic environment and geopolitical tensions.

  • Except for China and Thailand, most economies in Asia will likely see lower real GDP growth this year than in 2022. However, as the aforementioned headwinds weaken over the coming months and the impact of China's reopening cascades through the region, the recovery is expected to pick up momentum in 2024.

Major Asian economies' performance: a mixed bag

  • For China, weak export demand from developed economies and a struggling real estate sector will counterbalance the benefits of reopening and supportive fiscal and monetary policies — capping growth at no higher than 4.5% this year compared to 3% in 2022. Over the long run, structural issues such as an ageing population, low productivity growth, human capital mismatch, supply chain shifts and geopolitical rivalry may limit China's growth, risking a middle-income trap.

  • India is set to be the fastest-growing economy in Asia this year and next, expanding at 4.8% and 6.8%, respectively. The country's relatively strong performance is underpinned by a less severe surge in inflation, a strong domestic economy that is offsetting decline in external demand, and improving overall business environment, which is attracting international investments.
  • In Japan and South Korea – growth will be muted this year at 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively – as high inflation dents their recovery. High household debt in South Korea has kept a lid on consumer spending after recent rate hikes. Meanwhile, pent-up demand in Japan will partly compensate for inflation, supporting the recovery in domestic consumption to continue but at a slower rate than last year.

ASEAN-5[1] more resilient than ever:

  • With their increasingly robust economies and financial systems, the five largest emerging markets in Southeast Asia known as ASEAN-5 have remained resilient against recent external shocks, making them more likely to benefit from the global supply chain diversification trend.
  • The Philippines is poised to grow the fastest at 4.1%, followed by Thailand (4%) and Vietnam (4%). Thailand's resurgence as a preferred holiday destination will boost tourism revenues and push growth to 4% compared to 2.6% in 2022. Indonesia will be a laggard, growing at 3.6% before seeing a surge in growth to 5.5% in 2024, as private investments benefit from a new law.

Emerging risk of geo-economic fragmentation:

  • While the diversification of supply chains, triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions between the US and China, has benefited countries like India, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand, a broadening of this trend may risk a sharp geo-economic fragmentation of financial and trade flows.

  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine and ensuing sanctions on the country have already led to increased uncertainty around future trade relations. The potential consequences of a fragmentation scenario – reduced investments, jobs and growth are expected to result in large economic losses for Asia due to its central role in global manufacturing.


[1] ASEAN-5 consists of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Together with five other states, they form ASEAN or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Hashtag: #economicoutlook #atradius #Asia #Asiaeconomy #economicgrowth #globaltrade

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

About Atradius

Atradius is a global provider of credit insurance, surety and collection services, with a strategic presence in over 50 countries. The credit insurance, bond and collection products offered by Atradius protect companies around the world against the default risks associated with selling goods and services on credit. Atradius is a member of Grupo Catalana Occidente (GCO.MC), one of the largest insurers in Spain and one of the largest credit insurers in the world. You can find more information online at Connect with Atradius on Social Media

Twitter


LinkedIn


YouTube

News from Asia

VinFast Indonesia to expand dealership network to 85 showrooms nationwide

JAKARTA, INDONESIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 26 July 2025 - VinFast, the Vietnamese Nasdaq-listed EV manufacturer, has officially signed agreements with 20 new dealership partners during th...

VinFast Indonesia continues to expand nationwide service workshop network

JAKARTA, INDONESIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 26 July 2025 - VinFast, the Vietnamese Nasdaq-listed pure-electric vehicle manufacturer, today announced the signing and implementation of strategic ...

HKSTP Takes Nine Game-Changing AI Tech Ventures to WAIC 2025 to Advance China's AI Plus Vision in Transforming Business and Industry

HONG KONG SAR / SHANGHAI, CHINA - Media OutReach Newswire - 27 July 2025 - Hong Kong Science and Technology Parks Corporation (HKSTP) is embarking on a mission to advance China's AI Plus vision wi...

Vietfood & Beverage - Propack Vietnam 2025: The Biggest International F&B Exhibition in Vietnam

HANOI, VIETNAM - Media OutReach Newswire - 28 July 2024 - From August 7-9, 2025, Vietfood & Beverage - Propack Vietnam 2025 - The biggest international F&B exhibition in Vietnam will offic...

Jollibee Group Evolves its Corporate Brand to Help Power Global Growth

Brand update brings to life its global purpose and positioning as a unified group of brandsMANILA, PHILIPPINES - Media OutReach Newswire - 23 July 2025 - The Jollibee Group, one of the world's fas...

Taiwan Cybersecurity Day Returns to Thailand — Showcasing Solutions for Thai Enterprises

TAIPEI, TAIWAN - Media OutReach Newswire - 28 July 2025 - As global threats become increasingly sophisticated, cybersecurity has become essential for business continuity and digital trust. Taiwan ...

AIA Hong Kong continues to lead the insurance industry with the most market No.1* in Q1 2025

HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach Newswire - 28 July 2025 - AIA Hong Kong has once again led the industry with the most market No.1 in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Provisional Statisti...

Aifeex Accelerates Global Strategy with Seven AI Ecosystems to Lead the Future of AI Finance

KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 28 July 2025 - On July 22, 2025, Aifeex hosted the “2025 Global Artificial Intelligence Summit” in Kuala Lumpur, unveiling its strategic layout o...

YBUOJ Responds to BaFin Announcement, Reaffirms Compliance Credentials and Global Regulatory Commitment

COLORADO, USA - Media OutReach Newswire - 28 July 2025 - YBUOJ has issued an official response to a recent notice from the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority of Germany (BaFin), which alleged...

AsiaInfo Technologies Integrates with NVIDIA Omniverse to Accelerate Smart Manufacturing Transformation

BEIJING, CHINA- Media OutReach Newswire - 28 July 2025 - AsiaInfo Technologies Limited ("AsiaInfo Technologies" or the "Company"; HKEX stock code: 01675), a leading provider of software products...

Landowners Offered $30,000 Per Year for Just 1 Hectare: The Rise of 5MW Battery Projects Across Australia

In a pivotal shift reshaping Australia’s renewable energy landscape, landowners in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria are being offered up ...

Major national security tech alliance launches with Aerologix a founding member

Australia’s leading drone intelligence pioneer bolsters sovereign tech power Australia’s leading aerial data and drone intelligence platform, Aer...

Chris Hancock AM Honoured as 2025 Communications Ambassador

SYDNEY Chris Hancock AM, former CEO of AARNet, has been awarded the prestigious Communications Ambassador title at the 2025 Telecommunications Indus...

Baby boomers are driving development feasibility leading to larger apartments

As residential developers continue to grapple with feasibility issues on apartment projects, the sector is struggling to deliver volumes of new st...

Hays launches FY25/26 Salary Guide: ‘Salary Paradox’ deepens as pay rises fail Australians

Rising dissatisfaction with pay, progression and perks is fuelling a new wave of career change in FY25/26, as Australians demand more from employe...

Australian Businesses Still Stuck in the AI Hype Cycle

Data Governance Failures, ROI Gaps and Unclear Strategy Slowing Progress Despite artificial intelligence (AI) dominating headlines and boardroom ag...

Sell by LayBy